#1 - Lurk, It's Alive! (4/5/2026)
"What doesn't cost life, costs nothing" — Charles Kelly, My Father and Inspiration
Preface
For a long time, my greatest anxiety in developing Lurk has been the possibility that there aren't any, or enough arbitrage opportunities to support the core use case.
No more. After the most recent test of the Pipeline (v2) which powers the arbitrage scanner, has officially come to life, bringing Lurk along with it.
The Facts of v2
MERGER: 308 | Filtered out: 266 | Quality: 12 | Ended: 30 | Top spread: 50.0%
REJECTS: ('QUALITY': 255, 'SUBJECT': 10, 'ENDED': 30, 'CONTRACT': 1)
TOP ARB: Which party will win the SC-07 | Spread: 50.0% | Poly: 0.10 / Kalshi: 0.96
- fetch_kalshi_ms=19321.79
- fetch_polymarket_ms=44115.83
- merge_total_ms=195.93
- merger_class_ms=79.59
- merger_parameter_ms=51.93
- merger_subject_identity_ms=14.05
- merger_temporal_ms=1.82
- merger_canonical_deadline_ms=0.17
- merger_stale_quote_ms=1.85
- merger_side_alignment_ms=39.62
- merger_spread_calculation_ms=0.55
- merger_quality_filter_ms=0.42
- write_ms=0.00
- cycle_total_ms=63633.79
Completed in 63.63s.
The Meaning of v2
Out of a tiny sample size of 308 potential arbitrage opportunities, 266 were filtered out, leaving 12 quality spreads. This is a pool of markets that only covers politics, and only a few specific elections.
Expanded to cover all 38,000+ markets I've mapped to date and if even half as many as 4% make it through like in this test, and we'd still have over 700 potential arbitrage opportunities daily for our users.
Why v2?
I can assure you the versions aren't arbitrary:
From v1 to v2 there have been well over 100 git commits. While there's still a lot of work to be done, the results so far speak for themselves; v2 is a major milestone for Lurk.
Conclusion
My father drove trucks. I write code, but he inspired me to believe I could one day be in business for myself. Now that I am with Lurk, I'm more energized than ever to build the best product I can as I work toward the Lurk Terminal beta test in a few months, love you dad, thank you for everything.
P.S.
I won’t have an area for comments under posts because I want each to stay focused on the content. With that said, I encourage anyone to reach out to me via my personal Instagram, X/Twitter, LinkedIn, or Email if you'd like to chat.
Questions for Reflection
- Do you have anything you're working on right now? (genuinely interested)
- Do you know exactly what you're working toward? (Milestones and such)